What will Musk build?
What Tesla (since 2009) and SpaceX (since 2019, its first public figure) have earned, line by line, what they run today, and what the record says they build next.
What he built
Revenue and profit since Tesla’s first full year, how his promises have fared, and how his ideas survive.
Revenue, by product line
Tesla in warm colours, SpaceX in cool. SpaceX enters in 2019, its first public figure.
Operating profit, by line
Losses below the line. SpaceX before 2023: net income, its only public figure.
Promises against delivery
Each dot a dated promise: the time he gave against the time it took. Above the diagonal is late.
How his ideas live and die
Each line an idea, from the year he proposed it. Thick where it earns; ◆ succeeded, × abandoned.
What runs today
The machines running now: rockets and satellites, the capital behind them, and the businesses they make.
The pulse
Starlink satellites in orbit over every other payload, and a square for every SpaceX launch.
Capital in, value out
What each company raised from investors against what it became. Log scale.
The businesses
Revenue in the last reported year, its trend, and its share of the growth to 2036 in the best projection.
What he builds next
The best projection is what his companies have actually done: his plans discounted by his record, plus new businesses at the pace he has always found them. The other cases bracket it.
Revenue: the record, and where it goes
The record flows into every case. The bold line is what he builds. Log scale.
How fast growth slows
Revenue growth each year: the record (like for like), and each case to 2066.
Where the next ten years’ growth comes from
Revenue in 2026, what each business adds by 2036, and the growth rate a year it implies.
Every case, from today
Compound growth a year from today, in revenue and in value from today’s market price.
…
What it is worth, decade by decade
Value at each year end, weighted over when Musk stops leading. Log scale; his age under the years.